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After this grueling second round thing that spilled into Montreal’s big, last minute Game 7 overtime win vs Buffalo on May 18, the whole playoff picture just shrunk down to four teams. Conference Finals are set to start May 20 in the West, and May 21 in the East, so honestly the margin for error is basically gone, like it’s not even hiding anywhere.
Looking at what’s left here, there’s a pretty clear pecking order, depth shows up, special teams metrics matter, and the teams that stay analytically consistent once the postseason gets mean tend to rise.
1. Colorado Avalanche (Western Conference #1 Seed)
The President’s Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche are sitting at the very top and they walk into the Western Conference Final with obvious statistical advantages and after they neutralized the Minnesota Wild in five games, their transition framework is still the smoothest one in the remaining group. Colorado averaged a punchy 5.2 goals per game across the first two rounds and that production is powered by Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.
On the numbers side, Colorado leads everyone still standing with a 54.8% expected goals-share (xG%) at five-on-five. Their main weak spot is defensive discipline—specifically the way they’ve been letting power play chances happen, they conceded about 3.8 power play opportunities per game. Still, if the Avalanche keep that high-danger conversion rate humming, currently 18.4%, they might have the highest ceiling of any of the final four and they host Vegas for Game 1 on Wednesday night.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (Eastern Conference #1 Seed)
The Carolina Hurricanes grabbed maximum rest by running a four-game sweep over the Philadelphia Flyers- so they arrived in the third round with an 8–0 postseason mark, which is wild and that start is backed up by what is arguably the league’s most effective special teams system. Carolina’s penalty kill has been at 94.8% efficiency through the first two rounds, stopping 18 of 19 opposing power plays.
They slot in second mostly because of a small shortfall in five-on-five offensive creation compared with Colorado. Sure, Jackson Blake and Sebastian Aho deliver clutch moments, but Carolina leans on a low-risk forechecking approach that smothers opponents more than it tries to out-sprint them. With Frederik Andersen holding steady in goal, Carolina profiles as this disciplined defensive machine, the kind that’s going to test Montreal’s physical endurance pretty hard.
3. Vegas Golden Knights (Western Conference #2 Seed)
The Vegas Golden Knights move on to the Western Conference Final after handling the Anaheim Ducks in six games and Vegas lands third because their defensive rotation has had a few small hiccups and those issues added up to 3.1 goals per game allowed against Anaheim and also, the temporary absence of captain Mark Stone due to injury didn’t help, because it exposed how much they lean on depth when things get messy. As a result, Vegas had to lean heavily on Mitch Marner, he had three assists in the Game 6 closeout.
Vegas stays dangerous thanks to their physical edge and their zone-exit efficiency. Their Corsi rating is a sustainable 51.4%, showing they can steer the pace against high-volume shooting squads and to knock off Colorado- the Golden Knights need to tighten up their power play efficiency, since it slid to 14.3% during the second round, and they have to keep the Avalanche from turning those neutral-zone transitions into scoring chances too often.
4. Montreal Canadiens (Eastern Conference #2 Seed)
The Montreal Canadiens arrive as the Eastern Conference Final wild card and it’s fitting since they became the youngest team to reach the final four in 33 years. Montreal showed real grit by going to 6–0 after a loss this postseason, and the story ended with Alex Newhook’s Game 7 overtime winner over the Sabres. Newhook has turned into a frontline spark, tallying seven points in the second round.
Even with that momentum, Montreal still ranks fourth because of the heavy physical toll from their seven-game series and statistically, the Canadiens surrendered 39 shots on goal in their final match vs Buffalo, and they basically had to rely on a 37-save performance from Jakub Dobeš (.949 SV%) to survive and advance. Now they’re facing a rested Carolina club that swept their regular-season matchups, so Montreal has to address defensive-zone coverage gaps right away if they want their championship run to keep breathing.
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